When will the price drop on the Microsoft Surface Pro 3?

By Mike Flacy on May 27, 2014

Recently announced last week and arriving in the hands of consumers on June 20, 2014, Microsoft’s Surface Pro 3 is already garnering positive reviews. Receiving accolades for a vibrant, high resolution 12-inch screen as well as solid performance and a slimmer form factor compared to previous models, the Surface Pro 3 will debut at an MSRP of $799 for the base 64GB / Intel i3 model. Microsoft is also offering four other options with additional storage space up to 512GB and processors up to the i7 at price points between $999 and $1949.

Of course, just because Microsoft is releasing a new tablet doesn’t mean you should run out and order it immediately. Historically, Microsoft has struggled to gain market share on the Surface line of tablets and will be fighting against the extremely popular iPad models form Apple as well as the plethora of Android tablets from companies such as Google, Samsung, ASUS and Toshiba. This high level of competition has translated to aggressive price cuts within the first nine months of a Surface tablet release as well as an escalated release schedule on new models.

Another factor that could be important in any potential Surface 3 price drops is the accessibility of the tablet before the start of the new school year. During 2013, Microsoft was particularly aggressive in offering sales on Windows 8 tablets that included a bundled Office 365 subscription. It’s possible that students (with a valid student email address) will be able to get a 10 percent discount on one of the new Surface Pro tablets shortly after the tablet launches in June.

To help you figure out, based on your budget, when the best time to purchase the Microsoft Surface Pro 3 will be, we dove deep into Ben’s deal history data to analyze all the previous generation deals that we posted since the Surface RT was first released during October 2012. On average, Ben’s posts about 40 to 50 deals per year for each entry level model in the Surface line of tablets as well as deals on the previous generation’s more expensive models when the new model is released. We know exactly when tablets go on sale and can predict some obvious price drop trends that the Microsoft Surface Pro 3 will follow over the next 12 months.

What do the previous Microsoft Surface models tell us about the Surface Pro 3?

At launch, you aren’t going to see any discount on the tablet, unless you pre-order it or it’s being bundled with Office software. In fact, there’s currently a 5 percent off deal for pre-orders. Regarding the difference between the prices of models with higher storage capacity, be aware that the Surface Pro 3 comes with a microSD card slot. That slot is capable of taking a card up to 128GB in size, thus you could expand your 64GB model to 192GB if you choose (128GB MicroSD cards run about $120).

3 months from the release date, it’s unlikely that you will see any significant discount on the base model of the Surface Pro 3. In fact, pre-orders are already sold out until late August. At best, you may find small sales between 5 to 10 percent off. However, it’s likely that those sales will be limited to holiday sale periods, like back-to-school.

6 months out from release and you will finally start to see some price movement. Historically, Microsoft has specifically cut the price on the Surface tablets by $100 within the first six months of launch. Look for that price cut during late December. However, it’s possible that you will see a similar sale price during November 2014 since the Microsoft Store gets extremely aggressive during Black Friday. Be aware that many of those Black Friday deals are offered on a limited time basis, some of which only last an hour or two before expiring.

9 months out, this was the tipping point for all previous Surface Pro and RT tablets. At this point, the Surface tablets drastically drop in price and cut another $200 to $300 off the purchase price just three months prior. You will also see an influx of refurbished tablet deals for even lower prices. Interestingly, the Surface Pro 2 tablet is getting ready to make that slide. By late July 2014, you will see deals on the Surface Pro 2 around $500 to $600. In fact, the price drop could be even more precipitous since the Surface Pro 3 is debuting at a cheaper price than the Surface Pro 2 did during October 2013 ($799 versus $999). However, if you have your heart set on the Surface Pro 3, look for a $500 price on the base model around March 2015.

12 months from launch, the price drops level out a bit with just another $75 to $100 off the 9 month price. By June 2015, the base model of the Surface Pro 3 will be between $400 to $450. However, you will see a larger quantity of deals for the Surface Pro 3 models with more storage capacity and faster processors. It’s also likely that Microsoft would release the Surface 4 by that point in time. In fact, it could come even earlier in the life cycle, perhaps the 9 month mark.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will the release of a new iPad drive down the price of the Surface Pro 3?

No. Microsoft has released models of the Surface during various times of the year, but has followed the exact same price reduction model despite the influence of competing tablets.

Does it matter which retailer I purchase the Surface Pro 3 from?

Possibly. Microsoft has been extremely aggressive with sales on the Microsoft Store, particularly during shopping holidays. For instance, we ranked their recent Memorial Day sale as an ‘A’ on our grading scale due to some massive price cuts. Be sure to watch the Microsoft Store on Black Friday if you are interested in the Surface tablets. In addition, both eBay and Newegg have offered aggressive cuts on Surface tablets late in the life cycle.

So When Should I Buy the Surface Pro 3?

Our advice would be to wait until the 9 month tipping point to get the maximum value on the tablet for your dollar. However, if you are shopping for a Windows tablet right now, watch for the upcoming price drop of the Surface Pro 2 tablet happening during Summer 2014. Also, if you set up a deal alert on Ben’s, we will be able to email you the second that we post a deal on the Surface Pro 2 or 3 that meets your price point!

Search for Surface Pro Deals on Ben’s

About Mike Flacy

Editor-in-Chief for The CheckOut. During my free time, I love to write about pop culture, home theater, digital photography, social media, mobile technology and cool gadgets!

11 Comments

MorgyChan

June 26, 2014 at 1:18 pm

In terms of the Surface Pro 3, will there be any other price drops around Black Friday and Cyber Monday?

Reply
- Mike Flacy
  
  June 26, 2014 at 2:14 pm
  
  Likely about $100 off. However, look to the Microsoft Store to temporarily discount it up to $200 periodically during November. Those flash sales usually last an hour tops before stock sells out.
  
  Reply
Akvod

June 8, 2014 at 6:02 pm

Do you have any advice or thoughts on waiting too long? For example, if I definitely want the most expensive version (i7 at ~500 GBs) would I be stuck with only the cheaper ones later?

I also want to get a warranty for the Surface Pro so I’m worried about buying from other retailers too.

Reply
- Mike Flacy
  
  June 10, 2014 at 7:59 am
  
  No, you wouldn’t be stuck with the cheaper ones. I don’t think you could wait too long, however the decline in price will ultimately slow down significantly within one year.
  
  Reply
RZ

June 6, 2014 at 9:07 am

Any idea if the release of the Surface Pro 3 will result in lower prices for the Surface Pro 2?

Reply
- Mike Flacy
  
  June 10, 2014 at 7:56 am
  
  As we stated in the article, the release of the Surface Pro 3 will help drop prices on the previous model. I’d look to July / August to see that shift.
  
  Reply
  - RZ
    
    June 10, 2014 at 2:54 pm
    
    Thank you.
    
    Reply
RZ

June 6, 2014 at 9:06 am

Memorial Day sale??? I was at a Microsoft kiosk on Memorial Day and asked the seller about sale prices, and was told that there weren’t any.

Reply
- RZ
  
  June 6, 2014 at 9:10 am
  
  Sorry, just venting my frustration that I may have missed a discount.
  
  Reply
g33k

May 27, 2014 at 8:51 pm

Thanks for sharing the price history on the previous versions of the Surface tablet. But I have to disagree with the assumption on the Surface Pro 3 price dropping as fast as it’s predecessors.

In my opinion, the new Surface Pro 3 is already more popular than it’s predecessors. It has a more desirable screen size/resolution and thickness. And because of the demand, Microsoft may be reluctant to drop the prices as fast. I would consider replacing my Lenovo Yoga 13 with the Surface Pro 3 but not the 2 or the 1.

Although I do hope you’re right so I can get one sooner. We’ll just have to wait and see…

Reply
- Mike Flacy
  
  May 27, 2014 at 9:11 pm
  
  I agree that popularity of the tablet could impact price in the 9 month view. That being said, it would take a significant bump in market share to accomplish that, beyond the heavy preorders.
  
  If I recall correctly, MS had about 1.3% of the tablet market in Q1 2014. In addition, oversized tablets only make up about 1% of the total tablet market. Microsoft will need consumers to transition to the larger screen size for the Surface 3 to pay off.
  
  Reply